The percentage of college students identifying as transgender or nonbinary has declined by nearly half over the past two years, according to a new report analyzing large-scale campus surveys. The trend marks a reversal after years of steady increases in students identifying outside the male-female binary.
The report, titled The Decline of Trans and Queer Identity Among Young Americans, is based on an analysis by Eric Kaufmann, a professor of politics at the University of Buckingham. Kaufmann reviewed multiple national and campus-specific surveys, including a 2025 poll of 68,000 U.S. undergraduates conducted by the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression.
In that survey, students were asked to select their gender identity from the following options: man, woman, nonbinary, agender, genderqueer or genderfluid, unsure, and prefer not to say. Responses other than “man” or “woman” were categorized as gender nonconforming. While “transgender” is often used to describe individuals who identify as a different gender than assigned at birth, most of the surveys used a broader definition that includes nonbinary and other nontraditional identities.
According to the FIRE data, the share of students identifying as transgender peaked in 2023 at nearly 7% and declined to under 4% by 2025. The number of students not identifying as male or female dropped from 6.8% to 3.6% in the same time frame. Other surveys reported similar shifts: At Brown University, the nonbinary share declined from 5% to 2.6%. At Andover Phillips Academy, the number fell from 9.2% to 3%.
The data also showed that younger students—typically freshmen and sophomores—were less likely to identify as transgender or nonbinary than upperclassmen. Kaufmann described the shift as “a sign that fashions are changing.”
The report noted a concurrent decrease in the use of other LGBTQ+ identity labels, particularly those related to sexual orientation. The share of students identifying as queer, pansexual or asexual dropped, contributing to a 10-point decline in students identifying as nonheterosexual. In contrast, the percentage of students identifying as heterosexual rose from 68% in 2023 to 77% in 2025. The share of students identifying as gay or lesbian remained “largely stable,” according to the report.
Kaufmann’s analysis explored potential contributing factors, including mental health. A 2025 study from Harmony Healthcare IT found that 57% of Gen Z adults reported improved mental health since the pandemic, citing increased access to therapy, reduced screen time and stronger support systems. The report suggests that improvements in mental health may correlate with changes in gender and sexual identity trends.
“The postpandemic era of improving mental health appears to encompass alternative sexual orientation and gender,” the report states, “suggesting the two trends are substantially independent over time.” However, Kaufmann noted that “mental health alone cannot adequately explain declining trans, queer and bisexual share.”
Medical experts not affiliated with the study offered additional perspectives. Dr. Marc Siegel, a senior medical analyst at Fox News and professor at NYU Langone Health, called the findings “very interesting” but said the data does not provide definitive answers.
“It brings up more questions than it answers,” Siegel told Fox News Digital. “Could the change be due to a changing cultural climate? Less political pressure from parents and society? Could it be due to the idea that gender dysphoria resolves in many cases?”
He also questioned whether increased visibility and efforts to reduce stigma may have influenced earlier identification rates.
“Could the attempt to ‘normalize’ these choices and to ‘overcome stigmatization’ have been an overreaction in some cases, which is now being dialed back?” he said. “Or is the stigmatization now increasing again, making students reluctant to declare themselves as nonbinary now? This needs to be studied further.”
The study also evaluated whether political or religious trends may have influenced the shift. Kaufmann found that levels of religious affiliation and progressive political views among students have remained mostly stable over the same time period.
“Trans and queer identification have declined among young Americans even as levels of wokeness and irreligion have not,” Kaufmann wrote. “For young people, gender and sexual identity are now independent fashions that rise and fall separately from other cultural and political currents.”
The report does not predict whether the current trend will continue but concludes that the data represents a significant change in how many students are choosing to identify.
“Only time will tell if the substantial decline of BTQ+ identification will continue among young Americans,” the report states. “If so, this represents a momentous and unanticipated post-progressive cultural shift in American society which is distinctly out of phase with the expectations of cultural left observers in educational institutions and legacy media outlets.”